Sawing Off the Branch We're Sitting On and Deepening our Dependence on Northwest Hydro for 'Blackout Insurance'
Washington and Oregon have Teamed with the Federal Government to Undermine the Very Hydropower on Which 100% Clean Electricity Mandates were Based
Reliable electricity is critical to every aspect of modern civilization, including food, shelter, medical care, education, and entertainment. When you think about it, electric utilities are really in the health, safety, and wellbeing business.
And while customers and policy makers rightly engage in holding utilities accountable for providing affordable and environmentally responsible electricity, when it comes to delivering on reliability, there is nobody with more skin in the game than utilities.
Failure to “keep the lights on” can be a matter of life and death and will always be the metric by which utilities will receive their harshest critiques and ultimate judgments.
CLEAN ENERGY LAWS & THE POLITICS OF HYDRO
Unfortunately, overly aggressive clean energy laws in Washington and Oregon have boxed many northwest utilities into a corner by taking reliable technologies off the table before we have dependable carbon-free replacements like nuclear in place.
One frustrating irony is that some of the same entities who helped force-feed a deepening dependence on wind and solar power, are continuing to irresponsibly call for the erosion of carbon-free hydroelectric generating capacity. The very hydropower on which Washington and Oregon’s 100% carbon-free electricity laws and bragging rights were established.
And rather than celebrating existing nation-leading clean and low-cost energy capabilities, highly-funded special-interest-groups have capitalized on a shift in political power, together with emotionally charged arguments and pseudoscience, to undermine hydropower; while falsely promoting wind and solar technologies backed up by batteries as environmentally benign, low-cost and operationally equivalent replacements.
While the general public is likely unaware, it’s important citizens understand political leaders and agencies in Washington and Oregon have been working behind the scenes for a number of years to diminish hydropower through regulatory actions like endorsement of risky and excessive spillway flows.
The next time you drive by a hydroelectric dam and observe frothy downstream river conditions created by multiple spillway waterfalls, keep in mind no electricity is being generated with this water. And as a consequence of high volumes of plunging water, the total dissolved gas (TDG) levels in the river are increasing.
And when TDG levels get too high, salmon and other aquatic species can be injured or even die. In the case of salmon smolt, high TDG levels can cause gas bubble disease (GBD), a non-infectious, physically induced trauma.
While salmon science is complex it is important to know, with support from Washington and Oregon agencies, federal dam operations have been changed in recent years to allow long periods of 125% TDG levels; which is well above the 110% criteria previously enforced by state water quality regulators to avoid acute levels of GBD and the salmon mortality that can come with it.
It has yet to be determined whether dangerously high spill is helping or hurting salmon. But one thing is for sure, these risky operations are reducing the amount of electricity generated by dams.
Additionally, over the past three years, state officials in Washington and Oregon have helped set the stage for possible future degradation of hydropower through a much broader than intended application of water temperature regulations included in the federal Clean Water Act.
In summary, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) water temperature regulations are now being unfairly applied to each of the eight federal dams located on the lower portions of the Columbia and Snake rivers. While nobody wants river temperatures to be too high for salmon survival, Columbia and Snake River temperatures at the Canadian and Idaho borders are often too warm to meet state requirements. So the standards may be impossible to meet and may set the dams up to fail.
And as if it wasn’t going to be hard enough for Washington and Oregon utilities to balance affordability and reliability while meeting the electrify-everything clean energy policies of their respective states, we are now forced to contend with an unprecedented effort by our states to coordinate with the federal government in undermining hydropower like never before.
This coordination culminated in the Biden Administration’s public release of a United States Government (USG) “commitments” document December 14, 2023 that puts the full force of the federal government behind further eroding support for hydropower by going as far as advocating for future breaching of the Lower Snake River (LSR) dams.
While it depends on who you ask as to whether LSR dam breaching is a real possibility, anti-hydro interest groups are publicly celebrating the USG commitments as a “roadmap” to do just that. And no matter how you slice it, LSR dam breaching has now been normalized by the Biden Administration as one of several “center piece actions” required to restore salmon runs to non-specific “healthy and harvestable abundances” while claiming “replacement energy” in the form of intermittent and variable wind and solar can provide the basis for a breaching decision.
To add insult to injury, the Biden Administration developed their comprehensive plan using a legal strategy which intentionally excluded utility and hydropower interest groups from their negotiations with anti-hydro entities, four tribal nations, and yes, once again, the states of Washington and Oregon.
Scott Simms, CEO & Executive Director of the Public Power Council summed it up succinctly in a December 14, 2023 press release . . . “Almost two years of a closed-door process that began with a pro-dam breach agenda from the US Government ended today with, not surprisingly, a blueprint for how to devalue, deplete and ultimately demolish our region’s clean, renewable federal hydro power projects.”
SO HOW BIG A DEAL IS NORTHWEST HYDRO?
Not only would LSR dam breaching eliminate sources of emissions-free electricity, it would also remove 3,483 nameplate megawatts (MW) of generators that historically have delivered as much as 2,500 MW of dependable generating capacity when it’s most needed.
While anti-hydro interests always downplay the annual amount of electricity produced by the LSR dams, they fail to mention the transmission grid stability services and up to 25% of operating reserves these dams provide to the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). Reserves are the backup capability standing by to meet critically high demand during a polar-vortex winter weather event or when other generators experience an unplanned outage. Basically, operating reserves are “blackout insurance”.
Not only does BPA market the output of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) to 142 customers (including 127 not-for-profit utilities) located throughout the Northwest who count on the electricity derived from 31 hydroelectric dams, they are also one of 38 balancing area authorities (BAA) in the western power grid.
BAAs are responsible for coordinating regional exchanges of electricity and for maintaining minute-by-minute power grid demand and supply balance which is most challenging during extreme temperature and weather conditions.
One of the elements included in Biden’s USG commitments and supporting documents is to provide federal funds to form a new Pacific Northwest Tribal Energy Program with the goal of tribal development of between 1,000 MW and 3,000 MW of wind and solar generation backed up by energy storage; which in theory could be used as replacement power for the LSR dams in the event Congress authorizes breach in the future.
Setting aside the legal arguments as to why the USG cannot commit to “sole sourcing” BPA replacement power, lets take a look at the reality of BPA’s balancing area responsibilities today and what it would look like to “replace” the LSR dams with wind and solar farms.
First, it’s helpful to know Pacific Northwest hydro is capable of producing just over 16,000 average megawatts (MWa) or almost half of the annual electricity generated in the region. And on average, BPA’s federal-dams represent around 50% of the total regional capability or about 8,000 MWa.
While these are big energy numbers, when it comes to power grid reliability, averages are mostly irrelevant. What counts is what generation shows up during specific hours, on particular days, and under critically high demand conditions.
One of my favorite quotes in recent years is something northwest utility expert and consultant Randy Hardy said during a regional meeting . . . “averages are the enemy of reliability planning”. What Mr. Hardy was alluding to is that utilities are expected to deliver electricity around the clock no matter what the weather and with 100% always-on customer expectations. Utility customers will not (and should not) accept that utilities are planning to keep the lights on most of the time, on average.
With that said, utilities do not plan the grid to provide 100% reliable power. A common planning standard is referred to as a “1-in-10” which translates to one day (24 hours) in ten years or 2.4 loss-of-load-hours (LOLH) per year, regardless of the magnitude or number of outages. The point of bringing up these numbers is to emphasize that to meet modern grid reliability planning standards, utilities must have generating technologies in place that can be counted on down to the hour.
This means generators that have predictable fuel supplies and are controllable and capable of operating across a range of outputs optimized for electricity demand currently on the grid and what is forecasted for future days, months, and years. In utility vernacular, generators with these traits are referred to as dispatchable.
While this may go without saying, dispatchable does not include wind and solar farms which only produce electricity proportionate to wind speeds and the position of the sun in the sky respectively.
In addition to being controllable, dispatchable generators also have the ability to operate at their maximum (nameplate) generating capacity when called upon. Pacific Northwest total hydro nameplate generating capacity is over 34,000 megawatts (MW). Of this amount, BPA manages just over 22,000 MW (65% of the total).
While hydropower is a great technology in many ways, it is also a variable generation resource subject to available water supplies and whether turbine-generators are out of service on a scheduled or unscheduled basis.
Given these variables, BPA hydro can be counted on to produce just over 16,000 MW during peak demand hours; however, this level cannot be maintained across all hours due to water constraints. According to BPA’s most recent “Loads and Resources Study” federal hydro can be counted on to produce just over 11,800 MW across the hours of highest winter demand for electricity in January. So clearly, the 2,500 MW provided by the LSR dams is significant.
Now, let’s take a look at some recent days in the life of the BPA functioning as a Balancing Area Authority (BPAT). While the eleven-day period illustrated in the following graph did not include particularly cold weather, it does provide a recent and real-world example of how critical controllable generating technologies like hydro are to keeping the lights on.
As is always the case, the demand for electricity follows a pattern corresponding to the season of the year and the daily rhythm of modern life. In the case of late fall (winter), the daily pattern includes early morning and late evening maximums corresponding to hours of highest residential space heating occurring simultaneously with the use of appliances and other electrical equipment that define the “good life”.
In the previous graph you can see BPAT experienced a maximum demand of 9,534 megawatt-hours which occurred between 7 am and 8 am on November 28th. And in the next graph, you can see the generation technologies being used by BPAT to achieve demand and supply balance each hour and at the time of maximum demand.
Clearly, hydro dominates the BPAT generation supply stack with the hourly shape of output following the same pattern of the demand curve shown previously. Nuclear which represents the Columbia Generating Station along with natural gas can be seen to be operating in an always on fashion (flat line) with some adjustments to their output to prescribed levels. This operating mode is what is referred to as base-load capability.
It should be noted, while BPAT is providing grid balancing services for just over 1,000 MW of natural gas, this generation is not part of BPA’s utility customer wholesale power supply portfolio. The same can be said for the vast majority of the 2,827 MW of Wind and 138 MW of Solar. The output from these technologies would normally be part of an exchange BPAT makes with another BAA elsewhere in the region or may be serving a BPA customer utilities’ demand inside the BPAT footprint.
The key take away from reviewing the BPA generation stack is to note hydro is providing both base-load and demand (load) following capability.
Additionally, you will note that wind power is supplying near zero generation across the majority of the 11 day period with only 61% (1,727 MW) of the nameplate capacity showing up randomly after the highest demand period has passed. And solar generation within BPAT’s footprint is too small at this point to make a difference.
Just imagine how this multi-day wind drought scenario would play out during a deeply cold winter weather event without the controllable generating capacity of hydropower. And the idea that 2,500 MW of LSR dam generating capacity can easily be replaced by 1,000 to 3,000 MW of wind and solar backed up by batteries is clearly suspect.
In fact, a 2022 study commissioned by BPA revealed, using currently available technologies without the help of new natural gas power plants, it would require an “impractically large” 10,600 MW of wind and 1,400 MW of solar to do the job under a deep decarbonization scenario driven by Washington and Oregon clean energy laws. And batteries were shown not to be economical due to “antagonistic" interactions characterized by the inability to store enough energy during periods of simultaneously low hydro, wind and solar output.
And just to get a picture of what this would look like ecologically speaking, the prescribed amount of wind would cover an area equivalent to between 20 and 40 times the Seattle land area and the solar farms would require more than 4.2 million individual panels.
Additionally, the wind and solar replacement plan would cost between $277 to $517 per megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to the LSR dams which cost between $13 and $17 per MWh. This multiple orders of magnitude increase in costs would drive northwest retail electricity rates in 2045 to levels between 34% and 65% higher than today. The BPA study did show these big increases would be nullified if technologies like advanced nuclear, hydrogen turbines and carbon-capture are available and cost-effective; but there are some heavy lifts required to get to that point.
The BPA study also assumed the rest of the Pacific Northwest hydropower system would stay in place and be operated the way it is today. Not under some diminished condition resulting from additional regulatory constraints orchestrated by Washington and Oregon, with an assist from the US Government.
Another critically important point for citizens and elected officials to understand is that BPA’s firm (essentially guaranteed), nation-leading, and low-cost output from federal dams is already 100% spoken for through contractual allocations to their utility customers; i.e. there is no surplus.
This means going forward, ‘routine increases’ in electricity demand of less than ten average megawatts served with BPA power will be priced at their “Tier-2” rate which is currently 72% higher than their coveted “Tier-1” rate. Tier-1 rates represent the low-cost power the northwest has long been known for that keeps attracting economic development interest. News flash, there’s none left!
And as for economic development opportunities associated with electricity intensive manufacturing and industry demanding ten average megawatts or more, BPA offers a “New-Resource” rate which on average is currently 136% higher than their Tier-1 rate. Suffice it to say, there are no takers to date, at least as far as I know.
While BPA is not the only game in town, their Tier-2 and New-Resource rates are a reflection of the cost utilities can expect to pay to secure additional dependable supply for at least the next four to five years. And after that, all indications are the glory days of low-cost electricity in the northwest are over.
WE ARE GOING TO LEAN ON NORTHWEST HYDRO AND NATURAL GAS MORE THAN EVER AS COAL SHUTS DOWN
And if you think Northwest hydropower is only critical to BPA and its utility customers, think again. BPA’s hydro resources along with the other 50% of non-federal hydro located throughout the Pacific Northwest are also critical to big municipalities like Seattle and Tacoma as well as investor-owned utilities (IOUs) who are the predominant owners of coal and natural gas power plants in the region.
As planned shutdowns of coal plants proceed and punitive financial penalties included in Washington and Oregon clean energy laws make natural-gas more expensive, IOUs will continue to hope for surplus hydropower as a means of economically balancing their demand and supply.
To put this in perspective, lets look at the same 11-day period previously analyzed for BPAT but expand the footprint to include the aggregate demand and supply balancing for the geographical area shown inside the dark gray boundary on the following U.S. map.
In the highly interconnected power grid illustrated by the BAA map of circles and lines, the lines represent transmission interconnections that allow certain amounts of electricity to flow from one BAA to another. Keep in mind, just because there are transmission lines, doesn’t mean electricity can easily be routed precisely where it needs to go. More on that in a future post.
For the same 11-day period we previously looked at for BPAT, the aggregate electricity demand across the greater Northwest (NW) power grid reached 51,351 megawatt-hours on November 29th, once again between the hours of 7 am and 8 am.
In the next set of graphs, you can see the different patterns and levels of generation from the various technologies used to meet demand across the NW geographical area that extends beyond the Pacific Northwest into Eastern Montana, Northern Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.
Once again, just like inside the BPAT footprint, hydro is the single technology providing the most base-load and balancing power inside the greater Northwest (NW) footprint, followed by natural gas and then coal.
Imagine on November 24th at 10 pm trying to meet 45,000 MW of electricity demand without the nearly 25,000 MW of dependable coal and natural gas generating capacity that showed up to assist 16,000 MW of hydro that night. And ask your elected officials this. If hydro capacity is going to shrink, then how do we avoid blackouts if we shut down coal and your policies are aimed at bankrupting natural gas?
As for solar. Not only does it have a ‘night-time problem’ when it’s producing 0 MW, it is also subject to big changes like the 2,500 MW drop in maximum mid-day production that occurred over the first two days of the period we’re reviewing.
And as for wind, you can definitely aggregate a whole lot of wind farms across a big geographical area to produce a big MW number for a relatively short time. But the problem is you can loose all of that generating capacity relatively quickly when mother nature doesn’t cooperate. This is illustrated by the more than 12,000 MW difference in wind generation that occurred between the low of 450 MW on November 24th and the high of 12,500 MW on December 2nd.
Yes, I know batteries are beginning to be deployed. But it’s not a simple matter to predict when to charge batteries and when to discharge them. And batteries don’t come cheap in terms of both dollars and cost to the environment. Particularly when you consider the volume of electricity we are talking about today. And don’t forget Washington and Oregon policy makers are saying we need to double the capacity of the power grid in order to electrify transportation and natural-gas end uses.
Scroll back to the previous graphs, then try to imagine what the Northwest would do without the 17,500 MW of hydropower that showed up and did the heavy lifting to balance demand and supply across so many states.
It truly is unimaginable, but yet we have political leaders who have legislated the rapid shutdown of coal and are demonizing and attempting to bankrupt natural gas; while simultaneously advocating for the removal of the Lower Snake River dams and setting up hydro to fail.
CONCLUSIONS
When it comes to grid demand and supply balancing, controllable hydropower is to the Northwest as natural gas plants are to California and most of the rest of the United States. And based on multiple studies and common sense, many utilities are deeply concerned drought conditions affecting hydro, together with an unwarranted belief that uncontrollable wind and solar can replace coal and natural gas power, may be walking us closer-and-closer to a blackout cliff.
To compound the growing reliability risks, Northwest utilities are facing significant uncertainty in planning for an ‘electrified’ future driven by inflation, supply chain constraints and long lead times that come with capital intensive and impactful infrastructure projects. Thankfully hydropower is standing in the gap for now.
The next round of Northwest coal plant shutdowns will be in 2025 when the total amount of capacity removed from the grid will reach 4,000 megawatts (MW). This is equivalent to removing the dependable electricity provided by four Columbia Generating Station nuclear plants.
While plans to retrofit two coal-fired power generation facilities with natural gas burners have been proposed, one in Nevada and another in Wyoming, going forward hydropower will increasingly carry the grid reliability burden.
Unlike the intermittent and variable generation from wind farms, the availability of affordable and reliable electricity provided by Northwest hydro has been considered a certainty for decades. But we must not take it for granted.
Electric utility customers always expect their service provider to hold the line on rates. And they will always hold their local power company responsible when the lights go out. Citizens must recognize that political leaders and the special interest groups that fund their campaigns will not pay the price for blackouts, utilities will.
Please understand, the Lower Snake River dams are not surplus, outdated or expensive. Nor are any of the other federal dams on the main stem Columbia and Snake Rivers. They are the basis of the low-cost power supply portfolios of 127 not-for-profit utilities in the Pacific Northwest today and are the foundation of 100% clean electricity goals. And we cannot get there by 2045 without hydro.
We must demand more from our elected state and federal officials and hold them accountable for unnecessarily destabilizing the Northwest power grid. And as for their unjustified and dangerous “Hail Marry” attempt to save salmon by advocating breach of the LSR dams, does anyone really believe this action would not be the first domino in the game being played by anti-hydro interests to further diminish and even eliminate hydropower in some cases.
How about we use our limited intellectual and financial capital to find some common ground where we continue to invest in improving salmon survival while also prioritizing the preservation of natural landscapes through the development of energy-dense, small-footprint, always-on technologies like nuclear and natural gas.
And we must stop electing energy ignorant politicians driven more by ideology than science and engineering; and a true desire for human flourishing. Our collective health, safety and well being depend on it. We all want a better future for our children and grandchildren. But if we don’t get involved and demand a change of course soon, a lot of damage will be done, both to natural landscapes and our pocket books. And it will be costly and painful to unwind.
Great information and artwork!
1/24/24
Just ran across this meme on Gab & thought ya'll might appreciate it/the appropriateness/& the humor..... Unfortunately, this site won't let me post the pictures so I'll describe them:
The first picture is a solar panel farm covered in snow (i.e., "impaired" solar uptake).
The second picture is a wind turbine farm with the wind turbines frozen in place with icicles hanging off the blades.
A picture is worth a thousand words.